GTA 6 tipped to break 'absurd' Avatar record in one week - but skeptics aren't convinced

We don't need to remind you just how big Grand Theft Auto VI is going to be, with November 19, 2026 sure to be etched into the annals of gaming history. Some 13 years after GTA V launched and went on to become the most profitable entertainment product of all time, Rockstar Games is hoping to do it all over again.

From what little we've seen of GTA VI, its two record-breaking trailers and reports of equally record-breaking pre-orders suggest Rockstar Games and publisher Take-Two Interactive are destined to make bank.

Still, like it appears Elon Musk's SpaceX stock was overhyped ahead of its IPO, skeptics claim that GTA VI's supporters are too busy blowing smoke up the game's backside to see the 'real' numbers underneath.

GTA VI's week one sales could overtake Avatar's box office

Rockstar Games

To put it into context, the idea that GTA V is the most profitable entertainment product of all time means it's made more than any movie ever made. In terms of box office behemoths, 2009's Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time (unadjusted for inflation), with a jaw-dropping $2.92billion. Avengers: Endgame comes in second with $2.79billion, while 2022's Avatar: The Way of Water comes in third with $2.33 billion.

With a little help from GTA Online as the title's multiplayer component, we've been splashing out on Shark Cards for over a decade and helped GTA V earn nearly $10 billion in lifetime revenue.

That's undoubtedly impressive, but according to analysts (via Forbes), GTA VI could make half of its predecessors' revenue in its first week alone.

This comes courtesy of analyst firm Newzoo, which tracks that GTA VI has already generated up to $260million in pre-orders.

Remembering we're five months out from release, and are still yet to get a gameplay trailer, the firm has extrapolated pre-order behaviour and notes: "What the data actually shows is $180million in digital pre-order spend across the US and the five largest European markets in the final week of June, translating to a global opening week of roughly $260million, with most of the ramp still ahead."

With this, Newzoo claims GTA VI could make between $3.25billion and $5.2billion in week-one launch revenue.

While we try to get our heads around this mind-boggling snippet, others have pointed out that GTA VI is tipped to have a colossal budget of up to $2billion, meaning it has more to claw back than GTA V.

Then again, technically making your entire budget back in less than a week is sure to take the sting out of that bank-busting spend.

READ MORE: GTA 6 'should be' $200 according to industry expert as the ‘last great game before AI’

Crunching the numbers on GTA VI

The report has obviously grabbed headlines across the internet, as even at the lower end of the expectation spectrum, GTA VI could overtake Avatar's record-breaking legacy in a matter of days.

Looking a little closer at the figures, let's remember that GTA V made $800million in just 24 hours and went on to rake in $1.15billion in its first five days.

Forbes crunched the numbers so we don't have to, pointing out that $1.15billion in 2013 is the equivalent of $1.58billion in 2026.

GTA V also sold for $60 when compared to GTA VI's $80, but again, inflation means that's $60 is the same as $86.50 in today's money. You also need to consider GTA V's lifetime sales of 230 million units, with expectations that GTA VI could also overtake that. If the stars align, even the conservative $3.25 billion estimation could easily be eclipsed for too long.

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Others weren't sold, and over on Reddit, there was a heated debate about whether GTA VI's expectations are simply 'too big' as we'll inevitably hit a ceiling.

One skeptic mused: "For those numbers literally more than half of gamers on ps5/series consoles would have to buy it day 1."

Another added: "Ya I’m sorry this is just absurd. It will still be the biggest launch ever and nothing is even close. But >50% of all console owners buying a $100 game the first week is just not happening."

A third complained: "I feel like all these 'analyst' [sic] are just straight up pulling random numbers outta their a**es hoping to get clicks and views? Only Take-Two Interactive will have the actual number and no one else."

With all eyes on November 19, it'll be interesting to see whether GTA VI can reach these lofty expectations or the automotive adventure is destined to crumble under its own hype.