Featured Image Credit: Epic Games
Topics: Fortnite, Epic Games
Live-service titles can be very lucrative for developers, but it’s an area of the industry for which foraying into is accompanied with great risk.
It’s difficult to lure players away from the sector’s heavy hitters with many having invested years worth of microtransactions into their favourite titles.
You also must be willing to support a live-service title post-launch, developing new content to keep the playerbase engaged.
It’s for that reason that Naughty Dog cancelled its live-service The Last of Us spin-off, fearing it would limit the studio in the long-term.
Advert
With all of this in mind, going up against the likes of Fortnite, League of Legends, Marvel Rivals, Overwatch, Warframe, or Apex Legends is no easy feat.
While these are some of the titles dominating the genre, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re indestructible.
Fortnite is a behemoth of the live-service sector - and it’s the game’s monumental financial success over the years that has inspired other studios to pursue a slice of the live-service pie.
Even Fortnite could one day fall though, something which previously felt unfathomable.
Fortnite developer Epic Games recently laid off over 1,000 devs which notably included the creator of Jonesy, Fortnite’s most iconic character.
Epic Games also increased the price of V-Bucks, Fortnite’s virtual currency, and announced the end of several of the game’s spin-off modes including Rocket Racing, Ballistic, and Festival Battle Stage.
It’s arguably the first spell of trouble the live-service giant has had to weather, leading to speculation as to whether the game’s downfall is slowly commencing.
As spotted by WCCFTech, industry analyst Joost van Dreunen believes that may be the case.
Dreunen co-founded one of the industry’s most respected analytical firms and now authors the SuperJoost Playlist.
“Forever games, it turns out, aren't," Druenen stated.
He highlights "the encroaching, disproportionate power wielded by platform holders”, "the rising cost structure of its domestic market”, and the decline of the US games industry in recent years as the key factors contributing to Fortnite’s potential downfall.
On that initial point, platform holders have reportedly been able to increase their profits by 191% between 2015 and 2025, but game publishers have only seen rises of 98%.
As for the “rising cost structure of its domestic market”, that takes into consideration factors like global tariffs.
"Empires don't collapse all at once," Dreunen added.
"They hollow out, slowly, until one day the walls come down and everyone acts surprised. We are currently somewhere in the middle of that process,” with the analyst referring to the fall as “inevitable”.
This is surely likely to instil fear in many, but we cannot overlook the fact that Fortnite does remain a colossal success.
Epic Games is perhaps doing the right thing in trimming away some of the title’s spin-off modes as Fortnite has expanded well beyond being a battle royale lately.
The battle royale modes are, however, arguably what most players come for, so opting for a ‘back to basics’ approach could future-proof Fortnite amid what’ll certainly prove to be a crucial and formative period of time for the game.
Ultimately, as well informed as they are, the thoughts of an analyst like Druenen don't dictate a game's future. It's up to Epic Games to determine Fortnite's path forwards and we're all hoping it's a prosperous one.